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Briatin's
struggling economy is facing a fresh threat from a collapse in business
confidence, according to three separate surveys.
Finance
directors believe there is a one-in-two chance of the double-dip recession
lasting until the end of the year and four-fifths believe it would be better to
delay investment plans due to the current uncertain environment, according to
Deloitte’s CFO survey. Confidence among the group in the second quarter dropped
to a five-year low.
Deloitte’s
findings were matched by BDO, which found that business confidence had
plummeted to its lowest level this year. A separate report on activity levels
from Lloyds TSB found that growth had slowed to the weakest reading in seven
months.
The
findings will further dent hopes that businesses will drive the recovery by
investing the £750bn of cash they have hoarded to see them through a crisis.
As
well as the double-dip, finance directors blamed the eurozone for the drop in
confidence. They said the probability of one or more countries leaving the euro
by the end of the year was 36pc, the highest level so far recorded. Some 28pc
said their contingency plans had been put in place or were at an advanced
stage.
Ian
Stewart, Deloitte chief economist, said: “The survey underscores the connection
between the macroeconomic environment and corporate behaviour, in an indication
of the challenge in getting corporates to invest their cash reserves and drive
UK economic growth.
“Some
95pc of finance directors rate the current financial and economic uncertainties
facing their business as being above normal.
“Uncertainty
has had a corrosive effect on risk appetite and 80pc of CFOs say this is not a
good time to take risk on to their balance sheets.”
According
to BDO’s business trends report for June, optimism has collapsed to its weakest
level this year, “indicating a bleak second half of 2012 for the economy”. It
also warned that the short-term economic outlook took a knock, with the
forecast for business conditions in one quarter’s time posting its biggest drop
for 12 months.
Lloyds
TSB’s June regional purchasing managers’ index found that the regions reported
their slowest overall activity since November 2011.
At
51.3, it indicated a marginal rise in activity but a slower rate of output
growth than in May.