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Obama
worries about Pakistan’s disintegration and safety of its nuclear warheads. In
reality he and his team are least concerned about Pakistan’s fragmentation
since this has been among the many goals Washington had perceived at the time
of invading Afghanistan. Real concern is the nuke sand not the fate of
Pakistan. The US has already started seeing Pakistan as a failing state at the
brink of collapse. Its think tanks and media have been projecting different
scenarios of a balkanized Pakistan since 2004/05.
The
six strategic partners grouped together in Kabul had chalked out a
comprehensive covert plan in late 2001 how to destabilize, de-Islamize,
denuclearize and balkanize Pakistan. The agencies with the support of ISAF,
Karzai regime and experts of India proficient in Chankyan tactics have been
working zealously since 2002 to achieve their sinister objective of weakening
Pakistan from within under the garb of friendship and then extracting the
nuclear teeth when it becomes numb and powerless. The US military-NATO-Indian armed
forces-ANA have been impatiently waiting for the opportune moment to strike
Pakistan once it is denuclearized, or the US Special Forces forcibly taking
control over nuclear arsenal under the pretext that it had become unsafe. These
designs are no more veiled or based on hearsay and assumptions but corroborated
by several US and western analysts including book writers Bob Woodward and
David Sanger.
With
continuously falling economic indicators, worsening socio-politico-economic
instability, executive-judicial clash and highly disturbed internal security
situation, the vultures are gurgling with delight to see their prey bleeding
and offering it-self to be devoured without resistance. For over a decade,
Pakistan has been pushed from one crisis to another by the foreign actors duly
abetted by their puppets holding highest appointments in Pakistan. This unholy
alliance has brought nuclear Pakistan to the edge of a precipice, now requiring
a slight nudge to get broken into pieces without putting up a fight with its
real enemies. The schemers and intriguers pull their hair in utter frustration
and wail aloud when each of their conspiracy somehow fails to badger haemorrhaged
Pakistan into complete submission. Each chaotic situation gets averted because
of the assertive judiciary and ever vigilant and devoted armed forces,
nationalistic members of civil society and patriotic religious forces. They
create a wall and fail the deadly plots of adversaries of Pakistan aided by
handful of shameless Pakistanis sitting smugly in corridors of power.
When
Barack Hussein Obama took over from vile George W Bush in January 2009, there
was jubilation among the deprived classes in USA and in the Muslim world. Both
had suffered a great deal at the hands of Bush led neo-cons. Obama had promised
to bring a change and to address the grievances of the Muslims. He however
proved to be more hideous than his predecessor. No sooner he was anointed as
president; he started snarling at Afghan Taliban, Pakistan, Iran, Hamas,
Hezbollah and Syria. After issuing controversial Af-Pak policy, he virtually
started treating Pakistan as a foe. He threatened to carryout unilateral
military action in FATA whenever any actionable intelligence was available and
repeatedly asked Pakistan to do more against militants. He neither gave any
relief to the poor in USA, nor to the Muslims. Rather, he bolstered vendetta
against Muslim world by approving drone as a choice weapon of war against
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia and cyber warfare against Iran.
Following in the footsteps of his predecessors, he also fell in love with Israel
and India, the two leading terrorist countries.
He
showed the hard pressed US military in Afghanistan a way out of its dilemma how
to tackle the threat posed by the faceless enemy that had wrested initiative
and had dimmed all chances of victory. He first reinforced ISAF through two
troop surges to enable it to regain upper edge over the Taliban and al-Qaeda
combine and authorized night raids, but when he found that the US-NATO was not
in a position to turn the tide through use of brute force he launched a
diplomatic-political pincer to supplement the military pincer under the revised
strategy of fight and talk. He offered talks to the loathed Taliban to arrive
at a political settlement. However, the veiled objective was not to gain peace
through reconciliation, but to break Taliban-Qaeda alliance and also to divide
and weaken resistance movement of Taliban by categorizing them as good and bad
Taliban. Regional countries were incorporated to make the deceptive policy of
re-integration of reconcilable Taliban and isolation of irreconcilable a
success. In order to avoid battle casualties, he decided to make maximum use of
drones and also to step up secret wars against targeted countries.
The
objective of seizing and disabling Pakistan’s nuclear weapons had been
conceived by Bush Administration. Several contingency plans were made and
rehearsed by the US Special Forces under battle-simulated conditions. Heavy
pressure was mounted on Musharraf to let the US Special Forces to guard the
nuclear sites jointly with Pak troops because of professed vulnerability.
Although the ill-motivated pressure was withstood, no amount of assurances
would satisfy Washington. Seizure plans were rehashed and refurbished when
Obama took over. Creating hysteria about the nukes falling in wrong hands was
part of the strategy to scare the world and to undermine Pakistan’s security
and safety arrangements.
False
alert was created about dirty bombs manufactured by Baitullah’s men. Alarm
bells were sounded by the US-western media and officials that Islamabad and
nuclear sites were on the verge of being overrun by militants when Fazlullah’s
men took over Buner in April 2009. This psychological war of nukes falling in
wrong hands misfired as a consequent to three highly successful military
operations launched between end April and October 2009.
To
give credence to its cooked up story, CIA went to the extent of training a
special team of TTP to launch a token attack on one of the nuclear sites so as
to give an excuse to propagate that nuclear material for making dirty bombs had
been carried away by the attackers. ISI learnt about the nefarious plan and
exposed it in time. It was then propagated that officials with religiously
conservative bent of mind working inside nuclear facilities were linked with
Taliban who could hand over nuclear material to them. Pressure was built to
purge Taliban sympathizers. Purpose behind this move was to force Pakistan to
carryout purging, induce resentment among the employees and thus making it
easier for CIA to cultivate few from among the sacked employees to become their
informers.
Efforts
to seize or disable nukes were accelerated from mid 2010 onward with the help of
CIA network that had been gradually extending itself from FATA and Baluchistan
to other major cities of Pakistan. America’s agents holding key appointments in
Musharraf government and in Zardari-Gilani rule had been surreptitiously
helping foreign agencies and Blackwater to consolidate their positions. Arrest
of Raymond Davis slowed down the ‘Get Nukes’ program, otherwise 2011 had been
marked as the action year. Stealth raid by USSEALs on OBL hideout in Abbottabad
was a testing round fired to test the capability of Pakistan’s early warning
system and response action of security apparatus as well as reaction of the
public before going in for the main venture. Surveillance drone RQ-170 Sentinel
and stealth Black Hawk helicopters were used to stealthily reach the abode of
OBL.
The
misadventure however proved counterproductive for the US since the unilateral
act set the alarm bells ringing all over the country and anti-Americanism
peaked. The military and ISI went about plugging the security holes to prevent
such an occurrence. In the process, the CIA network that was operating
unchecked came under close scrutiny of ISI and MI. Its covert activities got
severely restricted. Sacking of Hussein Haqqani on account of his proven
involvement in memo scandal was a big loss for his patrons in USA. He was
instrumental in letting CIA agents in thousands to enter Pakistan without
security clearance from 2010 onward. Departure of dual nationality holder Farah
Naz was another loss. Zardari-Gilani-Rahman Malik trio also became helpless in
the face of assertive judiciary and military establishment together with
constantly rising ire of the public against corrupt and inept government.
After
failing to make Swat and SW as graveyards for Pak forces, the US applied all
sorts of tricks to lure Pak security forces into the killing field of NW and
get it bogged down for good. Such a scenario would have made an ideal story to
paint Pak forces as weak, incompetent and incapable of defeating the terrorists
and safeguarding the nukes. It would have thus become easier for the US
military to justify its intervention in Pakistan and taking control over the
nuclear arsenal before it fell in the wrong hands. When Pakistan military
refused to get deceived or bullied or lured by Kerry Lugar Bill (KLB), and also
succeeded in keeping foreign trained and equipped terrorists on the run, and
gave no excuse to the US spin doctors to drum up the vulnerability of nukes, in
sheer exasperation the US launched an unprovoked attack on Salala. This attack
was another attempt to discredit and dishearten the military.
But
this misadventure also proved very costly for the US. It got deprived of Shamsi
airbase from where CIA operated drones, and also of free supply routes, and
above all intelligence and military cooperation of Pakistan military. Its effort
to find a negotiated solution to Afghan issue through regional consensus also
received a setback while secret parleys with Taliban fizzled out. All these
negative developments took place at a time when the US and NATO had started
withdrawing from Afghanistan in accordance with decisions taken at Lisbon
Summit in November 2010. Finding itself in a lurch but captive to its egoism
and arrogance, the US opted to use Northern Network to transport perishable
items for ISAF which was time consuming and very expensive but refused to
apologize for its aggression in Salala, or to reconsider its drone policy. It
kept up with its high handed tactics to browbeat Pakistan and forfeit to reopen
supply lines without conditions.
The
US was sure to win because of pathetic economic state of Pakistan and slavish
civilian leadership. The battle of nerves continued for over seven months and
in this time the US lost hundred million dollars a month using northern route.
Each time the shaky government standing on slippery ground wavered and seemed
ready to throw in the towel in the face of US economic and diplomatic
pressures, the military put steel in its spine and the tug of war continued.
Difa-e-Pakistan-Council (DPC) and media also played their role in keeping the
government reined. The ice melted when Gen Allen on the quiet apologized to Gen.
Kayani and Hilary Clinton to Hina Rabbani. The US also agreed to pay
$1.2billion CSF due to military as well as the KLB instalment.
Opening
of NATO supply lines have been received with mixed feelings. DPC,
Tehrik-e-Insaf (TI) and PML-N are in the forefront condemning the government.
The DPC started a protest long march from Lahore to Islam abandon 8 July making
things difficult for newly elected PM who is already under judicial pressure
and public ire. Those against the resumption of supplies say it is another sell
out since the facility has been extended in violation to Parliament’s decisions
and aspirations of the people. They say it will be utter foolishness if we keep
getting bitten from the same hole particularly when the veiled designs have got
unmasked.
In
case PML-N and TI join up with religious parties, it will hasten the collapse
of Raja Ashraf’s cabinet and may force Zardari to hold elections by October
this year. Election or no election, what is more critical for Pakistan at the
moment is how to keep Pakistan intact and how to safeguard Pakistan’s strategic
assets till the ouster of current lot of depraved leaders? Opening of supply
lines and restoration of so-called US aid has made Pakistan more vulnerable to
foreign interventionism. We have thrown away a golden opportunity of getting
out of the stranglehold of deceitful USA. While our leaders are celebrating
that they have scored a huge diplomatic triumph, and are pleased that they will
be able to complete their five year tenure and also save their ill-gotten
wealth, the people are distressed. The people are fearful about the fate of the
country in the soiled hands of gang of immoral leaders least concerned about
looming threats. They strongly feel that the ship should be saved before it
sinks and not after it has sunk. Saner elements are cautioning that Woodward
and Sanger’s disclosures must not be taken lightly.
By Asif Haroon Raja(The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance columnist and a defence analyst)
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