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Russian,
Western and Arab forces were piling up on Syrian borders Wednesday, July 25,
bringing closer a war confrontation which could spur the Assad regime into
making good on its threat to use chemical weapons against “external
aggression.”
Based
on this reading, Moscow added its voice Tuesday to that of US President Obama
and warned Bashar Assad against using chemical weapons in view of “its
commitments under the international convention it ratified prohibiting the use
of poisonous gases as a method of warfare.”
debkafile’s
military sources: With operational intelligence deployment and electronic
stations positioned inside Syria, the Russians are better placed than any other
outsiders to know what is happening on Syria’s battlefields. Their warning must
therefore be tied to solid information confirming Washington’s assessment that
Assad is dangerously close to deciding to use his chemical weapons in a way
that would precipitate a regional conflict.
Israel,
“Turkey and Jordan” would be the first targets on his list. The immediacy of
the peril, debkafile’s military sources report, has speeded the arrival of
Russian warships to Syria to counter a potential Western, Arab or Israeli
assault on the embattled country.
The
Russian Ministry of Defense, which rarely discloses Russian military movements
outside its borders, announced early Wednesday morning, July 25 that a fleet of
Russian warships had passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the
Mediterranean.
The
fleet is headed by the anti-submarine and anti-aircraft Admiral Chabanenko
warship and consists of another three vessels carrying a large number of
Russian marines. This fleet will rendezvous with a Russian flotilla standing by
in the Mediterranean since July 21, detached from Russian Black Fleet and
composed of the Smetlivy figate and two
large landing craft loaded with Russian marines. This group awaited the main
force before approaching Syria.
The
fact that Russia is massing large numbers of marines off the Syrian coast looks
as though a landing on Syrian soil is on Moscow’s cards.
The Russian marine contingent, debkafile’s sources say, will stand ready –
either to come to the aid of the Assad regime or to serve as a bargaining chip
for a last-minute deal between Moscow and Washington for ending the war by
establishing a transitional military regime in Damascus whose makeup would be
agreed between them and Assad.
US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hinted at this possibility on Tuesday, July
24, when she said: “We do believe that it is not too late for the Assad regime
to commence with planning for a transition.”
But
Clinton also hinted, in a more threatening tone, that a situation is developing
for the creation of safe zones in rebel-controlled areas of Syria. “More and
more territory is being taken and it will, eventually, result in a safe haven
inside Syria which will then provide a base for further actions by the
opposition,” she said.
Clinton
didn’t name the potential protectors of those havens. However, since the Syrian
rebels are short of manpower, Western, Muslim or Arab defenders would have to
be called in.
Wednesday,
British military sources in London said the moment is rushing forward for
British forces to get involved in what is happening in Syria. Iran and Turkey
are not indifferent either.
Deputy
Iranian Revolutionary Guard chief, Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, warned on Tuesday,
July 24, that Tehran would not permit regime change in Damascus and if Syria’s
enemies intervened, Iran would hit them hard. The Iranian commander pointed a
finger at Saudi Arabia and Qatar, adding that the US and Israel are at the
forefront of the comprehensive campaign against Syria but are being beaten
back.
This
was the first time Tehran had explicitly threatened military intervention in
Syria.
Wednesday,
Turkey shut its border crossings to Syria. Military sources in Ankara confirmed
that massive Turkish military strength had been on the move toward the Syrian
border.
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