Our Security and Political analysis of the day:
Pakistan army is firm that it was a larger conspiracy by Indian RAW, Afghan RAMA and the CIA that led to the attack on the post. The supplies of NATO are still blocked and Pakistan has also rejected the report by the NATO on the incident. These are extremely disturbing developments for the NATO and US. Pakistan army is really angry.
Pakistan is in an extremely strong position to deal with and destroy the US plans in Afghanistan. The US army is hopelessly stuck in Afghanistan and the war has gone terribly wrong for them. All stated military and political objectives in Afghanistan have collapsed and the cost of war has broken the back of the US economy and military. US do not have boots to start another war against a nuclear armed Islamic country. Taliban are resurgent and are getting international recognition as a legitimate party of the war. The main assets of US/NATO for their war against Pakistan were the TTP which have taken severe beatings at the hands of Pak army and have been pushed into Afghanistan and dislocated from their strongholds in tribal areas.
These are the most difficult times for Obama and his administration. He had come to bring victory to the US in Afghanistan. Now he faces a humiliating defeat as in Vietnam. The US administration can hope to find a slave government in Islamabad but this is not happening now. In the absence of a docile, corrupt and incompetent regime, US is now forced to deal with a tough Pakistan army which is raging with sense of revenge after having lost tens of thousands of finest of officers and men in a war of terrorism and insurgency which was orchestrated by the CIA.
US supply lines are the biggest source of aid, logistics and supply of weapons to all terrorist and insurgent groups in the country. This fact is now an open secret. Thousands of NATO containers never reach Afghanistan but are opened and their deadly cargo distributed to terrorist and insurgents groups inside Pakistan. It is interesting to note that NATO has never complained to Pakistan for the “missing” containers.
The rapidly changing mood in Pakistan and the disaster in the battle field in Afghanistan has now forced the US to go for the unthinkable – talks with Taliban for an exit strategy. US is now desperately stuck and needs Pakistan’s support to bring Taliban for talks.
In incredible twist of policy, US is now openly acknowledging not just direct talks with Afghan Taliban but also sending signals that Taliban are not the enemy of the US!. US policy has indeed come a long way from 9/11.
This US vulnerability is another reason why US cannot treat Pakistan harshly despite the blockade of NATO supplies for almost a month now. The tone and demeanor of US is extremely docile and timid in dealing with Pakistan army. Pakistan army is now forcing the civil government to redefine its agreements, contracts and policies towards the US and Afghan war. The Zardari regime is now helpless to offer any support to the US as Pak army continues to exert more pressure for new rules of engagement.
Due to the clash between the army and the civilian government in Pakistan, the crisis for the US has now magnified in Islamabad also. Now US does not know whom to talk to for addressing the issues and challenges it faces in Pakistan and about the NATO supplies. The political government is in power but it is shaky, vulnerable and on its way out. Pakistan army is solidly dug in and is the authority which would decide the fate of the US but Pakistan army is angry and not willing to listen to or cooperate with US at the moment. These are extremely difficult times for US diplomats in Islamabad.
Within Pakistan, the crisis for the Zardari regime has now become an existential threat and there is total and complete chaos in the PPP regime. In desperation, the regime is even contemplating becoming a political “martyr” by inviting a coup by the army instead of getting impeached by the Supreme Court.
The Memo scandal is now in the Supreme Court and the Chief Justice was Zardari to respond to the statements by the army that the memo is a reality and must be investigated. The Zardari gang knows that if the issue is probed in the court, the treason charges would be proven and the regime would not just be sent packing but also treason cases would be registered against it.
The alternate option would be to provoke a Martial Law and a military take over. For that, the regime will have to provoke the army into a massive retaliation. That provocation can be sacking the army chief and the DG ISI!!. PPP now wants to kick the live bombs!
Sensing that the collapse of the regime is now close, the Supreme Court has given a date to the election commission to complete preparations for the next elections. But the task to prepare the lists is so huge that the election commission cannot complete the duty in next 2 months. Millions of votes needs to be verified and added to the lists. This cannot be done even in a year. In the last elections, almost 48 % fake votes were polled which brought this PPP regime into power. If the lists have to be reliable, the task would take at least a year. The election commission has shown its inability to complete the task within the unrealistic time frame being given by the SC.
Within the political parties, massive preparations have already begun anticipating the next elections. All major political parties as well as the religious ones are arranging huge rallies assuming that elections are just around the corner. Imran Khan is emerging as the new and the vibrant force in the political circus. All the opportunists, criminals, CIA assets and pro-US touts are now jumping ships and joining Imran Khan, hijacking the entire “revolution”.
The political turf of Pakistan is now red hot and extremely polarized on ideological, ethnic and regional lines. This is recipe for a bloody civil war if elections are held under these circumstances. The PPP regime knows that it is going down. There are chances of a military take over. Supreme Court says it will resist a military takeover. But elections cannot be held as the voters’ lists are not ready and SC knows that fake lists can cause bloodshed and civil war!
While the political battles are fought in the country as if the elections are only days away, the country’s governance, economy and management continues to go to dogs. This nation needs a government and a tough one. The legal and media wars are keeping the SC and the government busy in procedural matters while the country continues to collapse on all counts. Massive corruption is rampant breaking the back of national economy and exchequer.
If the country has to be saved from a monumental civil war and state failure, the Supreme Court and the army will have to play a decisive role. Following steps must be taken if army wants SC to enforce the justice. Else, the army will have to step in.
1. The Memo case should be decided urgently in the SC in the basis of the evidence given by the army chief and the DG ISI. No further inquiry or commission is required when ISI has given its findings. Chief Justice must not prolong the hearings and decide urgently.
2. The government would be dismissed on the evidence given by the army and the ISI.
3. Elections cannot be held; hence the SC must bring in a caretaker government with the help of army. The caretakers must come for 3 years to stabilize the country of corruption and terrorism. Till that time, all political activates in the country must freeze and the focus should be on revival of economy and security.
If the SC delays in deciding the Memo case and the government decide to remove the army chief and the DG ISI, then the army would retaliate with ferocity and then even the SC would not be able to control a Martial law. The system needs a massive and radical surgery but the SC does not seem to be working with the urgency which the time demands. The clock is ticking fast and the PPP regime is desperate to become a political martyr than judicial criminals.
The status is changing by the hour and any moment the crisis can ignite into a radical and perhaps a violent overthrow of the government.
Those who do not learn from history soon have their geography altered as well:
To all those who want elections in the country, read the following lesson from history and do tauba. Wallah, you will do khiyanat with Pakistan and Ummat e Rasul (sm) by going for elections when our enemies are sharpening their knives.
In 1970, the national political scene was violently divided on ethnic and regional lines. The Agartala conspiracy was not punished earlier and then the traitors of Mukti Bahini had organized themselves for the elections. The hostile forces had created militant groups in East Pakistan and then demanded elections. The "free and fair" elections were held under army in an environment where urban war was already planned by the enemies and pygmy leaders simply sacrificed the nation for "democracy", resulting in a bloody civil war, then Indian invasion and then dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971.
Today, there is exact repeat of the 1971 scenario. The memo conspiracy is exposed. The urban insurgents of TTP, BLA, ANP and MQM are in place, already fighting the army in cities and in tribal areas in a 4th generation war with Indian cold start waiting on the wings. The political turf is violently divided. National governance and financial backbone has collapsed and the parties are demanding an election under army where regional, ethnic and separatists parties would take part in the elections
and would demand to go their own ways once in power and multiple insurgencies would break out in the country. The new rulers would be worse than what we have today.
Elections under these circumstances are fatal for the country. The country needs patriotic and powerful caretaker government selected by the SC and the army to stabilize the country for 3 years at least.
Any other option would mean a repeat of 1971... Astaghfurullah! For Allah's sake - wake up!
The "Inqilab" cannot come through Zionist controlled system of riba based economic, demon-cracy and awara media nor can be brought by those who are not connected to Sayyadi Rasul Allah (sm) in Ishq and adab!
(The author is an ex afghan war mujahid and well known for his defense and geo-strategic analysis)