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Political review of the week: (An analysis by renowned Security think thank - Brasstacks)
Eastern Front
India is now heavily counting upon the US to be appointed as the natural heir to the US/NATO in Afghanistan once the bulk of western forces leave the country in around 2014. Indian military and economic presence is heavy in Afghanistan which is also being used as a launch pad to wage the 4thGW against Pakistan to soften it up for Af-Pak and Cold Start invasions.
The blockade of NATO supplies has not just created a crisis for the Americans but also for the Indians as well. Now, every military plan of NATO and India has gone into complete disarray. This is a major strategic victory for Pakistan achieved through a master stroke of tactical brilliance.
If Pakistan can hold this blockade for another few months, the back of the US military adventure would be broken in Afghanistan and by default of India as well. Americans continue to provoke Pakistan with more and more drone strikes and the mood remains defiant in Pakistan army to resist the US pressure to open the supplies.
Incredibly, Pakistan government remains in blissful ignorance about the intentions, strategy, weapons acquisitions and diplomatic and media offensive of India against Pakistan and continue to insist upon trade, talks, peace and giving access to the Indians in Pakistani markets and society. The Indian psy-ops within Pakistan is now most intrusive and devastating. Indians are fully exploiting this intrinsic treachery of the government and are in no mood to give any concession to Pakistan, especially when US is standing alongside Delhi.
But Pakistan army is now seriously concerned. With 55% of the army already deployed on active duty on internal security operations, there are just not enough troops to respond if the Indians decide to launch their Cold Start doctrine. Pakistan’s reliance is now heavily on its unconventional forces which can carry nuclear payload. While the government continues to auction the national security, military prepares for the inevitable showdown.
On the western front, Pakistan continues to create serious crisis for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. US is now desperate but is also extremely vulnerable to Pakistan’s strength in deciding the fate of US forces in Afghanistan. US cannot harm Pakistan militarily but the weak and compromised political leadership offers an opportunity to the US to threaten and blackmail the PPP regime. The regime is also hell bent upon opening NATO supplies but is afraid of the army and the public backlash. The PPP ministers are now resorting to shameless and farcical PR drive to convince the nation that NATO supplies must be restored, quoting non-existential laws and accords. US is also using threats, blackmail and intimidation to bring down the Pakistani resistance.
US is now fully using threat and blackmail to bring down Pakistani resistance. They have made their intentions clear on Drone strikes as well, making a mockery of the Pakistani parliaments’ resolution on the seriously contentious issue.
But the fact is that the relations between Pakistan and US have now hit rock bottom. US knows that it cannot impose another war on a nuclear armed nation with an army of over half a million regulars and over 10 million irregulars, tribals, militias and armed citizens. US have to use pressure, threats, bluffs, blackmails and bribes to make their way through not a real military adventure. This is the crisis US is facing right now. It does not have a military muscle to threaten Pakistan in real terms. US have to rely on bluffing Pakistan into submission. The entire invasion levels hardware is now stuck in Pakistan and if the things went out of control, Pakistan could actually seize these supplies which cannot be replaced by the US under any circumstances under the catastrophic economic meltdown in US and NATO countries.
US is threatening Pakistan that Islamabad would not be invited to a conference to decide the future of Afghanistan is Islamabad continues to block supplies. This is just another empty bluff which the PPP regime is more than willing to swallow. There is nothing US can do in Afghanistan without Pakistan’s support and any decision taken in the absence of Islamabad would mean nothing more than the piece of paper it is written. There is real threat that the PPP regime would auction the national interest rather too soon, without offering any resistance. The convicted PM is in London but keen to find a way out for the NATO forces at all cost.
There is a reason why US is using bluff and blackmail and not actual military force to bring down Pakistan. US just cannot afford another military conflict when it is losing the war in Afghanistan. In a damning indictment of US military strategy, a serving US army Colonel writes in the US armed forces journal about the debacles and disasters now haunting the occupation forces.
The article makes a startling read and shows how US is using the bluff and blackmail to confuse and disorientate the Pakistani leadership. Written by one of their finest officers who have spent time in Afghanistan, this article is the real factual analysis of the nightmare the US army is facing in Afghanistan and of failures of their leaders and allies in the Afghan army.
US cannot even control their allies, the Afghan army; let alone containing the rag tag militia of Taliban. Now the prospects of going to war with a nuclear armed nation with millions of regular and irregular fighters are a nightmarish unthinkable preposition for the US. US just cannot do it. This is what the Pakistani leaders do not understand.
US is actually releasing the Taliban fighters to cut peace deals with their “arch” enemy. This is farcical, hilarious and makes a mockery of their demands that Pakistan should “do more” to contain the Taliban threats. Such is the dire situation of the US in Afghanistan.
Political Front
The 4th generation war Pakistan is facing today cannot be fought without a strong stable government. The 4GW is not a military war alone but primarily a political, economic, media and diplomatic one. The fact is that 4GW cannot be deployed against a state if it has a strong federal government managing the law and order and economy as well the diplomacy and politics with strength and good governance. The fact that Pakistan is today on the verge of internal collapse is a sign that its government is actually a part of the problem instead of being its solution.
There is absolutely no sign of any reform, improvement or correction in any government or state organ and the collapse is too rapid now to be controlled without serious bloodshed and anarchy. The government, political parties, Supreme Court and the nation remain at war with each other oblivious to the threats which have now engulfed the nation. It is actually anarchy now.
The meltdown continues as parties literally drag the country towards a civil war on provincial or ethnic lines. This is most explosive political gamble by the parties to muster political support before the elections. The country would be ripped violently on ethnic lines. The Supreme Court continues to fire in every direction without any strategy or vision to control the rot, adding to the chaos exponentially.
While the state organs and political parties fight amongst each other, the country continues to slip rapidly into abyss as food and energy crisis turn into nightmares. The rulers and political leaders are making windfall profits as the country burns on all axis. The members of the parliament, Ministers and the Prime Minister, all are now the richest people in a country where almost 90% suffer food or energy insecurity. This is scandalous now and all the ingredients of a massive violent street revolution are mixed into a volatile inferno.
The anarchy is now unsustainable. If the army does not move in now, the country would become a failed state like Somalia or a disintegrated state like Yugoslavia. It has now come to this.
Pakistan Cyber Force
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