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Pakistan is now effectively surrounded by enemies from East, West and from within.
The NATO doctrine of Af-Pak is designed to launch a western invasion into Pakistan from Afghanistan.
The internally deployed 4th Generation War is already keeping Pakistan army engaged in a high intensity war within its own borders and also causing the collapse of the national economy, governance and social fabric through a massively corrupt and compromised regime of PPP and a sold out media which acts as the fifth column in the information war.
The Eastern flank is covered by the Indian Cold Start which is being aggressively deployed and improved by the Indians despite the farce of the peace talks, CBM’s and negotiations.
Pakistan army is now well and truly surrounded and would need great vision, aggressive command and brilliant strategy to come out of this “triple pincer”.
But the fact remains that the threats that Pakistan face today are unprecedented and can only be compared with the stratagem which the Indians deployed in former East Pakistan in 1971 where a similar “triple Pincer” had surrounded the Pakistan army. In 1971, the two Eastern and Western “pincers” were by the Indian army themselves while the internal rebellion was through the proxy militia of Mukti Bahini.
Today, the simultaneous deployment of western Af-Pak, Indian Cold Start and the insurgent 4GW has greatly added to threats faced by Pakistan, an unprecedented threat axis which is rapidly closing the encirclement. Pakistan army has so far been fighting the insurgency aspect of the 4th Generation War only, while the economic, political, diplomatic and information warfare axis of this ruthless war have not been countered due to the presence of a treacherous regime in Islamabad and an unserious Supreme Court which has no sense of urgency to assist the army in this war.
The result has been the catastrophic failure of state organs, critical infrastructure and national governance which has allowed the hostile forces to continue their solid grip on national politics, economy and media creating more deliberate crisis for the army and stabbing it in the back when it is already embroiled in a bloody high intensity conflict. Massive corruption in the government is leading towards street anarchy while the army watches helplessly and SC shows no urgency.
With an incorrigibly corrupt government, the entire pressure is now upon army to develop an urgent response strategy to these threats which are now posing an existential threat to the state and the nation.
Army has been able to counter the military aspect of the 4th Generation War to a great extent and is also in a commanding position to annihilate the Af-Pak doctrine also. The state of the USZ/NATO forces is precarious in Afghanistan and their supply lines are still blocked inside Pakistan. There are almost 3000 military vehicles, trucks, armored cars and heavy equipment stranded inside Pakistan. Also, around 5000 NATO containers full of ammunition, small arms, military equipment and other logistical supplies are in Pakistani hands now.
This equipment is enough to support at least 5 armored infantry divisions of the USZ/NATO forces in Afghanistan. This is just one lot of supplies which is stranded. More are in the pipeline and have been held back as supply route is still choked. USZ is building an invasion army in Afghanistan. Target is not within Afghan theatre but on the east – inside Pakistan.
Why would NATO/USZ need these threatening levels of military buildup in Afghanistan when they plan to leave by 2014 and are engaging with Taliban for talks and even offering Taliban to open offices in Qatar and are also claiming that Al-Qaeda is finished in Afghanistan? If the USZ plans to leave, why build armored infantry divisions in Afghanistan?
Obama is pledging to reduce the USZ military engagement in Afghanistan but still building an invasion army? It is obvious that the USZ/NATO target is now Pakistan under the Af-Pak and the USZ needs to disengage from the Afghan war to focus on the Pakistani theatre for the “last push”! If the question was of killing a handful of terrorists in Pakistan, USZ do not need multiple armored divisions in Afghanistan.
Pakistan army is now in the most commanding position against the USZ/NATO and has the opportunity to destroy the entire Af-Pak doctrine without even firing a shot – by seizing the stranded NATO supplies for the military buildup required to invade Pakistan!
Pakistan army can seize the military hardware as compensation for last 11 years of free transit without taxes, death and destruction caused to Pakistan and attacks on Pakistan army by the CIA backed insurgents. In any case, USZ have to pay about $25 billion in unpaid taxes and damages to Pakistan which it will never pay. It is time that Pak army helps itself.
This seizure of military hardware would stop the entire war against Pakistan into its tracks as the USZ neither has the capacity nor the economic strength left to wage a war against a nuclear armed Pakistan which also controls the fate of the USZ forces in Afghanistan now. Without the required military hardware, the USZ army is not in a position to roll into Pakistan. The equipment is stuck in Pakistan and now the entire Af-Pak is in chaos.
If Pakistan government allows this stuck up armored infantry divisions to enter Afghanistan, we can be sure that within weeks, this equipment would be deployed against Pakistan and Pak army will find itself on the receiving end of these weapons, along with the resurgent insurgency of the TTP and the threat of Indian Cold start from the east. That would be a fatal war of annihilation completing the triple pincer against Pakistan.
Needless to say, the failure to block and seize NATO supplies and allowing the hostile forces to achieve their military buildup in Afghanistan for an invasion into Pakistan would go down in history as the most catastrophic military blunder by any country ever which would not just result in the annihilation of the Pakistan army but also the state and the nation. The stakes and the risks of such a folly cannot even be imagined.
USZ is desperate to get back its stuck up equipment and is willing to bend backwards in unprecedented moves to some convince Pakistan army that it was a mistake which led to the attack on the Pak army post. So far, Pak army is firm in blocking the supplies but has not yet started to seize the NATO equipment.
This USZ desperation is a clear sign of the panic which is now haunting the USZ military strategists. Pakistan can now not just destroy the Af-Pak but also the 4GW and thus neutralize the cutting edge of the Indian Cold start as well. In one master stroke, Pakistan can break the pincer encirclement which was rapidly closing the loop.
Political Front:
Within Pakistan, the political parties have gone insane assuming that elections are just around the corner when in reality all the signs exist that there will be no elections in the coming months or perhaps year. The country is in a state of war, election lists are not prepared, economy has collapsed, governance meltdown has created anarchic levels of violence and the accountability of the corrupt political parties is pending. The political turf is violently divided and polarized on ethnic, regional, provincial and religious lines creating catastrophic fault lines which would be fatal for national unity and cohesion if elections are held under present chaotic environment. But still, all the political parties are assuming that it is their turn next. The regime of PPP is shaken up violently but is determined to hold on for as long as it can. It is actually farcical.
The Supreme Court has put the government in the dock as well and the regime is rebellious in mood and tone. The army is counting upon the SC to deliver the parting shot but the court does not seem to be in a hurry while the country burns. The regime wants to bring the SC and the army under its control to cover its tracks on treason and corruption. But the SC and army remain defiant. The battle lines are now well defined.
Meanwhile the regime remains busy in rampant corruption, making best use of the limited time they have. The country and the people moan in agony as the government robs as if there is no tomorrow.
The social frustration, anger and rage are now at the boiling point all across the country. Every day, there are riots, protests and arson due to collapse of entire power and energy utility services and back breaking inflation. The government remains stubborn, perhaps oblivious of the powder keg it is sitting on. The end of the regime seems very violent to us and very close, InshAllah!
Written by Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid
( Mildly Edited by Enticing Fury )
Pakistan Cyber Force
